Rational Picks Above 68% Accuracy Over Previous 9 Weeks

With a 12-4 record for Week 14, Rational Picks now stands at 90-42, or 68.2%, over the previous 9 weeks of the 2010 NFL Season. Over this same period, the ESPN experts were only 64.3%.

Machine Picks Bucs in Upset Win for Week 13

The Atlanta Falcons are flying high with the best record in the NFC and tied for the best record in the NFL. The Vegas line favors them by 3 points in their Week 13 matchup with the Bucs in Tampa Bay. The Bucs are coming off a loss to the Ravens, while the Falcons are ready to improve on a 5-game winning streak. While the Rational Sports Machine ranks the Falcons as a much better team than the Bucs, it computes the Bucs have a slight edge (53%) for this matchup. Will the better team prevail or will the Bucs shoot down the Falcons as suggested by the mathematical models of Rational Picks.

Rational Picks Beats ESPN Experts 5 of Last 6 Weeks

Rational Picks went 12-4 in Week 11 of the 2010 NFL Season, defeating the ESPN experts for the 5th time in 6 weeks. Over the last 6 weeks, the Rational Sports Machine is 58-26, or more than 69% accurate. After a dismal start in the 2010 season, Rational Picks is trending more in line with its historical performance.

That’s More Like It! Machine Trounces Experts.

The Rational Sports Machine went 11-3 in Week 6 of the 2010 NFL season, demonstrating better pick accuracy than every single one of the eight ESPN experts. As a group, the ESPN experts averaged only 8.7 games correct in Week 6. After a string of terrible performances, Rational Picks has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, at least for one week. For the 2010 season Rational Picks, like the human experts, still has a poor record overall. However, just maybe this is the beginning of a comeback for The Machine.

What is Going On?

The Rational Picks fell below 50% in prediction accuracy over the first 5 weeks of the season. This is unprededented and terrible performance. Historical prediction results suggest The Machine should be in the range of 63 to 71% accuracy for most seaons, with an average of 67%. Five weeks of near 50% performance is something that should happen, on average, no more than once every 13 years. So, yes it’s possible that this is at least partly a statistical fluke.

However, this is clearly no ordinary year so far. A quick glance at the NFL standings tells some of the story. The entire AFC South is at 3-2. The Chiefs are atop the AFC West. The Cowboys are in last place in the NFC East and 2 games back. The Vikings are vying for last place in the NFC North and have fewer net points than the Lions. The Saints (defending Super Bowl champs) are in 3rd place in the NFC South. Clearly, the human experts are struggling as well, with an average accuracy of only 55% for the ESPN experts. This is at least 5 to 10% below their typical performance.

The root cause of the poor performance of the Rational Picks so far this year–whether a statistical perfect storm, a fundamental change in the NFL that represents a break from the past, an undetected error in the advanced algorithms of the Rational Sports Machine, or perhaps some combination–remains to be seen. Meanwhile, day and night the machine crunches away on the numbers looking for that new edge, that different nuance, that special factor that will enable it to catch up and surpass the human experts. The hole is deep, but the sason is still young. For now, all we can say is check back to see how it goes.

Humans Strike Back

The Machine had a terrible Week 3, going 7-9 on its NFL picks. On the season, the Rational Picks are now a very poor 25-23, which is about 2 games behind the average of the ESPN experts.

This begs the question as to whether there is an error in the data or, worse yet, some kind of problem in the mathematical algorithms that have, until now, routinely demonstrated superiority over the human experts.

Statistically, it can be shown that a three-week win-loss of 25-23 or worse will happen on average once every 3 seasons even if the algorithms are working well, so perhaps there is no need to panic yet. On the other hand, if you side with man over machine in this battle, for the first time in a long time there may be some hope for your team.

On the plus side for the Rational Sports Machine, it did correctly predict two upsets: the Jets over the Dolphins and the Titans over the Giants. In so doing, it beat the majority of the experts and the Vegas line for those two games. Unfortunately, that didn’t make up for The Machine’s other wacky picks and a season that is off to an unusally upredictable start, even by NFL standards.

Wacky Week 3 Predictions

The line-up of Rational Picks for Week 3 contains some oddities. With these picks, it appears that The Machine has fried a circuit or two:

Panthers over the Bengals
Broncos over the Colts
Jaguars over the Eagles
Jets over the Dolphins
Titans over the Giants

The Vegas line and the majority of the experts at ESPN (in some cases all of them) take the other side on all of the above picks for Week 3.

Will the Rational Picks take a dive? Does The Machine need a reboot? Perhaps its advanced algorithms see something in the data that we humans just don’t understand? However, at first blush, Week 3 looks to be a bad one for Rational Picks. Stay tuned.

Machine Ekes Out Tiny Victory Over Humans in Week 2

Week 2 was another tough one for man and machine alike. The 2010 season has defied predictability so far. The Cowboys and Vikings at 0-2? The Buccaneers at 2-0? What will happen next?

The Rational Picks were 9-7 once again. A dramatic and correct upset prediction of the Jets over the Patriots helped the Rational Sports Machine to egde ahead of the ESPN experts by 1% on the season to date. The math models also computed the upset potential for the Redskins, who did nearly defeat the Texans but came up empty in overtime.

Check back to see if The Machine can move solidly ahead of the human experts as its algorithms burn in for the new season.

Rational Picks Nails Texans Upset Victory Over Colts in Week 1

The Rational Sports Machine correctly predicted the Texans upset victory over the Colts in Week 1 of the 2010 NFL season. It was right about the Steelers over the Falcons as well, while the spread and many experts favored the Falcons. However, The Machine was way off on its upset pick of the Panthers over the Giants.

For the week, the Rational Picks were 9-7 overall–nothing to write home about but in line with the experts at ESPN. With all the off-season changes and new-season unknowns, the Week 1 results certainly suggest the math is at least as good as the human experts. Check back during the season as the data rolls in and the algorithms gain their computational edge.

2010 NFL Week 1 Picks – Upsets in Store?

The Rational Picks are in for Week 1 of the 2010 NFL Season. Already, the adjusted algorithms are having an impact. The Machine has come out with 5 week 1 predictions that go against the conventional wisdom:
BUF over MIA
HOU over IND
DEN over JAC
PIT over ATL
CAR over NYG

Does The Machine have a loose circuit or does it know something that the Vegas odds and the human experts don’t? Check back to find out.