Rational Picks Loses Ground, Maintains Slight Edge

Rational Picks was only 50% correct on its predictions for Week 15 and Week 16 of the 2009 NFL Season. It lost ground to the benchmark experts at ESPN. Still, on the season, Rational Picks is 160-80 or 67%, which is in line with historical performance, and it maintains a slight edge over the human experts going into Week 17 and the playoffs.

While it’s still impressive that a mere mathematical model can equal or exceed football experts with decades of experience, it’s disappointing that Rational Picks was unable to maintain the significant lead it had developed by Week 14.

The algorithms do not account for playoff-bound teams that may elect to rest starters or whose motivations wane in final week or two of the season. In addition, the algorithms made some unusual upset predictions that did not come to pass during the previous two weeks.

Check back to see how Rational Picks fares during Week 17 and in the post-season.

Week 16 Upset Predictions

TEN over SD (53%) – 6 of the 8 experts at ESPN pick the very hot San Diego Chargers in this game. However Rational Picks computes Vince Young and the Titans have slightly better than even odds to prevail at home in this must-win game to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

BAL over PIT (63%) – Rational Pick’s advanced mathematical algorithms forecasts a 63% chance that the Ravens will defeat the Steelers in this critical game for both teams. 6 of 8 ESPN experts like the Steelers who seem to be back in top form after last week’s win over the Packers.

WAS over DAL (52%) – This is a huge upset pick by the Rational Sports Machine, and a very risky one indeed. Clearly, the mathematics ranks the Cowboys much higher than the struggling Redskins, so the algorithms are picking up on something else in the data that suggests the Redskins have a chance to keep the game close or possibly win outright. The point spread heavily favors the Cowboys as do all 8 ESPN experts and almost every rational human. This is one “rational pick” that seems completely irrational.

Rational Picks Playoff Predictions

Each week since the beginning of the season, Rational Picks has simulated the entire remaining regular season in order to compute a projection of the final season standings.

With only three weeks remaining now, the NFL playoff picture is still not entirely clear. However, Rational Picks has computed the odds and currently projects the following teams as the most likely playoff contenders:
AFC Division Champions: NE, CIN, IND & SD
AFC Wildcards: BAL & DEN
NFC Division Champions: PHI, MIN, NO & ARI
NFC Wildcards: DAL & GB

Rational Picks Beats ESPN Experts for Third Straight Week

For Week 14 of the 2009 NFL season, Rational Picks was 12-4. This beat the average of 8 so-called experts at ESPN by a small margin. It also marked the third straight week of superior performance compared to the ESPN benchmark. On the season, Rational Picks is now 144-64 or 69.2%. The benchmark experts trail Rational Picks by an average of about 6 games, with a combined percentage of 66.3%. Check out the week by week and season-to-date results.

There were several Week 14 match-ups in which the advanced, mathematical models of Rational Picks computed a prediction at odds with many of the human experts. Rational Picks projected the Dolphins over the Jaguars, the Redskins over the Raiders, the Chargers over the Cowboys, and the Giants over the Eagles. While the Eagles defeated the Giants, Rational Picks was right about the other three games.

Rational Picks Extends Lead Over ESPN Experts

In Week 13 of the 2009 NFL season, only 1 of 8 benchmark ESPN experts tied the 10-6 mark achieved by Rational Picks. The other 7 prognosticators were only 9-7 or 8-8. Going into Week 14 Rational Picks has a 2009 record of 132 – 60 or 69%. This is better than all of the benchmark experts and beats their average by 3%.

The Rational Picks for Week 13 included a prediction that the 7-4 Arizona Cardinals would defeat the 10-1 Minnesota Vikings. 7 of 8 experts picked the Vikings, and the Cardinals won. The Rational Picks also computed the NY Jets as probable winners over the Buffalo Bills. 5 of 8 experts picked the Bills, while the Jets prevailed. The injury-plagued Atlanta Falcons failed to upset the Philadelphia Eagles as projected by Rational Picks early in the week but overall the advanced mathematics again showed its strength versus human judgment.

Unlucky Week 13 in Store for Rational Sports Machine?

The Rational Picks for Week 13 include two upset picks that seem downright crazy, plus a couple of other predictions that are potentially questionable.

The Atlanta Falcons are favored by a hair (51%) over the Philadelphia Eagles. The consensus point spread favors the Eagles by 5.5, and the Falcons will be without starting QB Matt Ryan and possibly without RB Michael Turner as well. The Eagles aren’t fully healthy either, and the Falcons do have a great home record, yet taking the Falcons on this one certainly seems to be a stretch.

The 7-4 Arizona Cardinals, coming off a painful loss to the Titans, are given a slight edge (53%) over the 10-1 Minnesota Vikings. The Brett Favre led Vikings are clearly one of the very best teams in the NFL right now, and to make matter worse for the Cardinals they may have to play without QB Kurt Warner again. If The Machine does get this one right, it may be time for the NFL experts of the human variety to throw in the towel.

Finally, the Rational Sports Machine is picking the away teams in two games that are dead-even pick em contests according to the Vegas sports books: Houston at Jacksonville and San Francisco at Seattle. The Machine is favoring the visiting teams with probabilities of 67% and 64% respectively.

We’ll see where the ESPN experts line up on these games when they make their picks. The Rational Picks are issued very early in the week, giving the humans extra time to consider and adjust to injuries, weather and other news items. Even with that advantage for the humans, the computerized, mathematical model is mostly winning, at least so far. However, since The Machine lives by the numbers, it dies by the numbers too. Number 13 might turn out to be an unlucky number for The Machine.

RationalPicks Achieves 88% Pick Accuracy for NFL Week 12

Rational Picks correctly predicted the outcome of 14 of 16 NFL games during Week 12 of the 2009 NFL season. The correct picks for Week 12 included the Denver Broncos over the New York Giants. All 8 “NFL Experts” from ESPN incorrectly picked the Giants to defeat the Broncos.

Rational Picks also successfully picked the winners of other NFL games that many or most of the experts failed to get right, including the Jets over the Panthers, the Titans over the Cardinals, and the 49ers over the Jaguars. The Rational Picks for Week 12 were more accurate than every one of the 8 EPSN experts—by 4 games on average.

On the season, the Rational Picks prediction record is now 122-54, which exceeds 69% accuracy.

Week 12 shook up the Rational Rankings a bit. While these NFL power rankings generally seem reasonable, there are a few teams whose rankings defy human explanation even if justified by the advanced mathematics which underlies the Rational Rankings.

Rational Picks Scores Huge Upset Win as Broncos Defeat Giants

All 8 of the so-called experts at ESPN picked the Giants to defeat the Broncos on Thursday night. The Vegas point spread had the Giants by 6.5. Only Rational Picks computed an edge for the Broncos, who won 26-6.

Generally, computerized or mathematical prediction systems always pick the higher rated team (after accounting for home field advantage) to win every game. Not so with the proprietary mathematics developed for Rational Picks. Going into week 12, the “Rational Sports Machine” rated the Broncos as a “Struggler”, 8 positions lower than the New York Giants in the Rational Rankings. Even taking home field advantage into account, the Giants would normally be computed as the heavy favorite against the Broncos.

However, Rational Picks goes deeper and finds patterns in the data which suggest when teams are likely to upset. Such was the case with its prediction of the Broncos over the Giants. These special situation predictions aren’t always right, but historical data suggests that over the long haul they will be right more often than not. That was certainly the case in the Thanksgiving night game between the Broncos and the Giants.

Two Upset Picks for Week 12

Last week the Rational Sports Machine computed a slightly better than even chance that the Baltimore Ravens would hand the Indianapolis Colts their first loss of the season. The Ravens nearly did just that, but the Colts prevailed in the end. However, the Machine is at it again, this time predicting an upset by giving the Houston Texans a 51% chance of defeating the Colts.

Rational Picks includes another Week 12 upset among its predictions, computing a 51% chance that the Denver Broncos will prevail over the New York Giants. The Broncos have lost 4 in a row, and were destroyed by the San Diego Chargers in Week 11. The Las Vegas odds suggest that Giants are a heavy favorite in this game.

In other risky picks, The Machine is taking the 4-6 Titans over the 7-3 Cardinals (52% probability), and it’s favoring the 5-5 Ravens over the 6-4 Steelers (63% probability).

Perhaps the mathematical models are picking up on some variables, trends or factors that the human experts just don’t see. Or maybe, The Machine is in a slump. Check back on Tuesday December 1 to see how the Rational Picks fared on its weekly predictions.

Interesting NFL Picks for Week 11

The Rational Picks has some interesting predictions among the Week 11 match-ups in the NFL:

BAL 52% chance to defeat IND – The Rational Sports Machine has long considered the Ravens to be better than their record would indicate. It correctly computed the Ravens over the undefeated Broncos in Week 8, and it continues to put the Ravens among the contenders in the Rational Rankings. Now The Machine calculates a slightly better than even chance that the Broncos can upset the undefeated Colts in Week 11 and hand them their first loss of the season. In its Projected Final Standings, The Machine computes the Colts are most likely to wind up the season at 14-2, so perhaps this will be the first of the two losses for the Colts. Yet, the Ravens have been inconsistent, while the Colts seem to find ways to win. A 52% chance of victory is just about a coin toss, but considering the Ravens are playing the very impressive Colts it’s certainly an interesting pick and one worth keeping your eye on.

NYG 57% chance to defeat ATL. After starting the season 5-0, the Giants have lost 4 consecutive games. According to Rational Picks, their losing streak has a fair chance to end this week when they face off against the 5-4 Falcons. Atlanta is coming off a road loss to the Panthers and needs a victory to stay in the thick of the hunt for a wildcard birth in the NFC. The Giants are coming off a bye week in which their two key rivals in the NFC East, Dallas and Philadelphia, both lost.

SD 61% chance to defeat DEN. Denver beat the Chargers in San Diego, so why not lose to them at home? Read “Denver Broncos Get No Respect from Rational Sports Machine” below for more insight into the mathematical analysis of the Broncos and where they sit in the Rational Rankings.

CHI 52% chance to defeat PHI. The Eagles are still in hunt for the NFC East title despite a 5-4 record and a two-game losing streak. The Bears are only 4-5 and have also lost two in a row. However, unlike the Eagles, the Bears are 4 games behind the Minnesota Vikings in their NFC North division race. They are also a game behind four 5-4 teams in the NFC wildcard hunt. The Vegas odds are definitely favoring the Eagles in this game. A 52% probability is basically a coin toss but this nevertheless constitutes a significant upset pick for the Rational Picks in Week 11.