Math over Man! Rational Picks’ NFL Prediction Record Bests All Experts.

In a tough Week 8 for NFL Predictions, Rational Picks was only 8-5 or 62%. Yet many human experts were no better and several missed more games than they got right in Week 8. As a result, Rational Picks now stands ahead of all 11 prognosticators at ESPN and Yahoo! Sports, with a season record of 82-34 or 71%.

In Week 8 the Rational Sports Machine (the name given to the complex set of mathematical algorithms that drive the computerized picks) correctly predicted the first Titans victory of 2009 as well as the first Broncos loss of 2009. The Machine missed on its upset prediction that the Bills would prevail over the Texans. It also forecast a 6 in 10 chance that the Packers would defeat the Vikings but Brett Favre had other plans. The Rational Picks for Week 8 did correctly forecast that the Philadelphia Eagles would defeat the NY Giants.

Check the Week 9 NFL Picks now to stay ahead of the pack.

Is the Rational Sports Machine Irrational?

The Rational Picks for Week 8 of the 2009 NFL season include some seemingly risky predictions. There are at least 4 predictions that are potentially suspect.

Bills over Texans (54% chance)
This is a head scratcher. Houston is a top 10 team on total offense and 3rd in the NFL in passing yardage while the Bills are ranked 24th in total defense. The Bills have only averaged 16 points per game, compared to 24 for the Texans. Perhaps the Rational Sports Machine sees something unique in the data about this particular game, as it certainly ranks the Texans as a significantly better team overall. Or, perhaps The Machine has lost its “mind”.

Eagles over Giants (58% chance)
The advanced mathematical models underlying the computerized Rational Picks are also showing an edge for the Eagles at home over the Giants. Philadelphia lost to Oakland in Week 6 and was unimpressive in their Week 7 win over the ailing Redskins on Monday night. Meanwhile the Giants are number 1 in the NFL on defense and should be highly motivated to win this key divisional match-up after their Week 7 loss to the Cardinals.

Titans over Jaguars (56% chance)
The Rational Sports Machine is projecting that the Titans will win their first game of 2009 by defeating the 3-3 Jaguars. The Jaguars already beat the Titans by 20 points when they met in Week 4.

Packers over Vikings (61% chance)
The Machine computes a decent probability that the Packers will hand the previously undefeated Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings their second straight loss. Favre will certainly be motivated to win in his old Green Bay stomping grounds.

Has The Machine lost its edge, cooked it circuits, or dropped some data? Or does it know something we humans don’t? Check back to see how the Rational Sports Machine fares in Week 8.

10 – 3 Week 7 for Rational Picks, Now at 72% on Season

With another successful week, the Rational Sports Machine has added a bit more distance between its mathematically-based predictions and the pick accuracy of the so-called experts. Rational Picks is now 74-29 on the season or 72%. The 8 experts at ESPN, which include TV commentators and former NFL players, are 68% collectively. The 3 experts at Yahoo! Sports are at 67% as a group. After 7 weeks, Rational Picks is ahead of 10 of the 11 prognosticators and tied with 1. Check the results each week to see whether science and statistics continues to best experience and intuition when it comes to predicting the outcome of NFL football games.

Rational Picks Ahead of 10 of 11 Experts, Tied with 1

After Week 6 of the 2009 NFL Season, the Rational Sports Machine’s NFL picks record stands at 64 – 26 or 71%. This puts it ahead of 10 of the 11 “experts” who post picks at ESPN and Yahoo!Sports. One human expert is tied with the Rational Sports Machine. While performance varies week to week, over time we believe the advanced mathematical models developed and applied at Rational Picks will outperform most human prognosticators. It’s not too late to get your free NFL picks worksheet at Rational Picks and start to compare your NFL prediction skills against those of The Machine. Good luck!

Rational Sports Machine Extends Lead Over Humans in NFL Picks

The “Rational Sports Machine” at Rational Picks extended its lead over the human “experts” in NFL Week 5 picks with a 10-4 record, equaling or exceeding seven of eight experts this week and on the season overall. Over 5 weeks, The Machine is now 56-20, or 74%. Check out the summary results.

In the New England – Denver game, all 8 of the so-called experts predicted the Patriots, but The Machine computed a very close game with a 52% chance of victory for the Broncos. In fact, the game ended in tie during regulation and was decided in overtime as the Broncos persevered. The Machine also predicted a close one on Monday night, projecting a 56% chance that the Miami Dolphins would win against the New York Jets. The game went down to the wire, but the Dolphins won as predicted. Did The Machine get lucky or do its mathematical models “know” something we humans don’t? Check back to find out.

While 10-4 is a pretty good record, it doesn’t compare to the amazing 14-0 record last week. You can read the press release about this amazing feat.

A Perfect 14-0 Week for The Rational Sports Machine!

The Rational Sports Machine predicted the winner correctly in all 14 NFL games in Week 4 of the 2009 season. In the process it beat every single human “expert” at ESPN. The Rational Picks for Week 4 included the Jaguars over the Titans, the Patriots over the Ravens, and the Broncos over the Cowboys. On the season, the Rational Picks are now 46 – 16 for a remarkable 74% accuracy.

Rational Picks Keeps Pace with Human Experts

After the first two weeks of the 2009 NFL Season, Rational Picks is 21-11 or 66%. The experts at ESPN–with their ability to weigh all of the off-season changes and new developments, and with direct access to teams, players, coaches, and dozens of full-time analysts on staff–are only 22-10 on average.

The first two to three weeks of a new NFL season is typically the toughest time for the Rational Sports Machine. It generally hits its stride only after the opening weeks when its mathematical magic has had time to digest data from the early season performance. The Machine’s ability to achieve 66% accuracy with its Rational Picks and to stay essentially even with the human experts in the early going bodes well for high-accuracy pick performance for the 2009 season.

Be sure to check out the new NFL picks at RationalPicks.com every week.

Rational Sports Machine Nails Jets Victory Over Patriots

Under the normal algorithms, standard mathematics, and the usual statistics, the Patriots should have been favored to win over the New York Jets in Week 2. However, the Rational Sports Machine gave the Jets the edge. The Machine calculates the strength of each team but also takes into account data and factors that are unrelated to team strength yet may impact the outcome of the game in special circumstances. This Week 2 match-up was such a circumstance, and this time the Rational Sports Machine got it right.

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Special Situation Report: NFL Week 2

Check out the Week 2 NFL Picks at Rational Picks. While the Rational Sports Machine ranks the New England Patriots considerably higher than the NY Jets, and would normally even calculate them a strong favorite in an away game against the Jets, this week the Rational Sports Machine is detecting something unusual. Instead it is projecting a virtual toss up, with perhaps even a slight edge for the New York Jets at home over the Patriots.

Rational Sports Machine 75% Accurate in Week 1

The Rational Sports Machine’s NFL picks, posted at www.rationalpicks.com, were 12-4 in week 1 of the 2009-2010 NFL Season.

You can check out the weekly NFL picks and predictions or see the prediction results and updated NFL power rankings after week 1..